Before You Believe the Doomers, Read These 7 Data Points on Housing Affordability

Housing is expensive.
Rates are higher than they were in early 2020.
Home prices climbed fast.
And rent definitely hasn’t felt like a deal either.

So when a bold graphic pops up in your feed confirming all that frustration, it’s easy to think, “Yep. That’s it. It’s impossible.”

But that’s not the whole story.

Because affordability isn’t just about price. It’s about rates, income growth, inventory, negotiating power, and what’s actually happening in your market. And over the past several months, some of those pieces have started shifting in a better direction.

So before you make a major decision based on a viral post, let’s slow it down and look at what the data actually says — and how it applies to real families in real markets… including ours.

1. Mortgage Rates Have Eased (And That Matters More Than Most People Realize)

Mortgage rates drive your monthly payment more than almost anything else.

As of mid-February, the average 30-year fixed rate is around 6.05%. That’s nowhere near the 3% rates of 2022 — but it’s meaningfully lower than when we were pushing 7% and above.

In early January, rate declines reopened refinance opportunities for nearly five million homeowners nationwide. That’s five million households who suddenly had the chance to lower their payment.

For some families, that’s foreclosure prevention.
For others, it’s breathing room.
For some, it’s the difference between stretched and stable.

Affordability recently hit its highest level in four years. That doesn’t mean homes are “cheap.” It means the pressure has eased compared to the peak squeeze.

And here’s the part that actually matters:

If you already own, even a small rate drop could make refinancing worth exploring.
If you’re buying, the difference between 6.8% and 6.0% can impact your monthly payment more than a small shift in price.

In our local market, rates and inventory interact differently than national headlines suggest. The only way to know what it means for you is to look at our numbers.

2. The Buy vs. Rent Gap Is Smaller Than It’s Been in Years

For a while, buying felt completely out of reach for renters.

Nationally, buyers need about $111,000 in annual income to afford a typical home. Renters need around $76,000. That $35,000 gap is still significant — but it’s the smallest it’s been in three years.

A couple of years ago, the gap was wider and getting worse. Now:

• Rates have eased

• Price growth has slowed

• Wages have continued rising

Does that suddenly make buying easy? No.
Does it mean the math isn’t as brutal as it was in 2022? Yes.

If you’re renting, the better question isn’t “Is housing expensive?” It obviously is.

The real question is:
Does owning make sense for your long-term goals?

Sometimes the monthly payment difference is smaller than expected. Sometimes it’s not. But that answer doesn’t come from headlines. It comes from running your numbers side by side.

3. Monthly Payments Actually Came Down

When people talk about affordability, what they’re really asking is:

“What would my payment be?”

In 2025, nationwide homebuyer affordability improved 7.5%. The median mortgage payment dropped to $2,025 — about $102 less per month than the year before.

That’s over $1,200 annually.

Not life-changing.
But meaningful.

Payments are also taking up a slightly smaller portion of household income than they were at the start of the year. That tells us the squeeze has loosened — even if it hasn’t disappeared.

Here in our market, your actual payment depends on price range, taxes, insurance, and HOA fees. National averages are helpful for context, but your real number is what matters.

4. Renters Are Finally Getting Some Leverage

If you’ve been renting the past few years, you’ve felt it.

Higher renewals.
Limited availability.
Little room to negotiate.

That pace has cooled.

Nationally, households are spending 26.4% of income on rent — the lowest share since 2021. Asking rents are up just 2% year over year, the slowest growth since 2020. Nearly 40% of listings are offering concessions like free months or reduced deposits.

That’s leverage renters didn’t have two years ago.

Locally, it varies by neighborhood and property type. Some areas are still tight. Others are offering flexibility that simply wasn’t available before.

If your lease is coming up, it’s worth having a conversation — not just automatically signing.

5. Builders Are Negotiating

A lot of people assume new construction is the most expensive option.

Right now, that’s not always true.

In late 2025, 19.3% of new homes had price cuts — slightly more than existing homes. Builders are adjusting. And those adjustments often show up as:

• Price reductions

• Rate buydowns

• Closing cost incentives

A builder offering a rate buydown can impact your monthly payment more than a small price cut on a resale home.

In our market, some incentives aren’t heavily advertised. You often have to ask.

New construction isn’t automatically a bargain.
But it’s not automatically out of reach either.

6. Buyers Finally Have Room to Think

For the first time in a while, many buyers aren’t competing with ten offers on every property.

Nationally, there are 37% more sellers than buyers. That shifts negotiating power. Homes are sitting longer. Price reductions are more common. Repair credits are back on the table.

If you stepped out of the market in 2021 or 2022 because it felt chaotic, today feels very different.

You can pause.
Compare options.
Walk away if it doesn’t feel right.

Locally, some neighborhoods are still competitive. Others clearly favor buyers. Knowing which is which is the difference between confidence and stress.

7. The Crash Narrative Isn’t Backed by Data

We still hear it:

“Just wait.”
“It’s going to crash.”
“2008 all over again.”

The people who actually study housing for a living are not predicting that.

Forecasts for 2026 range from slight dips to modest growth — roughly -0.3% to +4.3%. That’s stability, not collapse.

Sales projections show growth. Mortgage rate forecasts hover in the low-to-mid 6% range. Gradual shifts — not chaos.

Could something unexpected happen? Of course. Markets respond to jobs, inflation, and policy.

But the data in front of us points to a market working through affordability challenges — not one on the edge of implosion.

The Bigger Picture

Yes — prices went up.
Yes — rates jumped.
Yes — rent climbed.

That part is real.

What often gets left out is what’s happened since:

• Rates eased from their highs

• Monthly payments came down

• Rent growth slowed

• Builders began negotiating

• Buyers gained leverage

• Economists are not forecasting a crash

Affordability is still tight. Homes are still expensive. But the pressure has been gradually easing.

And at the end of the day, the only numbers that truly matter are yours:

Your income.
Your timeline.
Your goals here in our market.

That’s a more productive conversation than any viral chart.

If you ever want to look at your real numbers — buying, selling, refinancing, or even just comparing rent — we’re always happy to walk through it with you.